Singing the Blues in Chorus

In working on an industry forecast for our January issue, I expected the comments to be discouraging. This year, more than most, the predictions have come easily for the folks I’ve talked to—including manufacturers, fabricators and glazing contractors—and all are along the same lines. While many glazing contractors still have some commercial projects scheduled for early 2009, what happens after the first quarter is anybody’s guess, or so I’m told.

This afternoon I spoke with Vicki Holt, PPG’s senior vice president of glass and fiberglass, who was kind enough to take a few minutes out of her busy schedule to answer questions about what the glass manufacturer is preparing for in 2009. To some degree, they're waiting to see like everyone else.

“It’s just a very difficult time to have good visibility right now,” Vicki commented.

But Vicki’s first prediction matched up with other comments I’ve received, that “in the commercial construction space in North America we have not seen a significant downturn yet in 2009.” While a number of contractors are telling me about project cancellations, many are still working through backlog and are only beginning to look warily for the next job to bid.

However, Vicki added that Global Insights, the economic and financial analysis with which PPG works, “is forecasting as much as a 14-percent decline for commercial construction in 2009.”

So the forecasts are pretty comparable. But what about the solutions? It may seem like the time to hunker down and focus on core businesses, but what are the areas in which branching out could be profitable during a commercial construction downturn?

Vicki presented one that is no stranger to the pages of USGlass, noting that green building construction and investments in renewable energy are likely to provide opportunities for jobs in a number of areas, including the glass industry.

When I talked with Tom Niepokoj, vice president of sales of Harmon Inc., a few weeks ago following Greenbuild, he made what I thought was an interesting observation.

“There’s no question that the country would like to more proactively pursue the green building product lines; our question is, can we afford it?” Tom said. “We’re kind of wondering if that trend will get a little sidetracked by the economy and the cost of those green elements.”

What do you think? Will initial investments in higher-priced “green” products deter architects looking to keep budgets low? Or will the long-term payoff remain inviting?

And in what ways are you preparing for 2009? Share your forecasts by emailing me at mheadley@glass.com, and I’d be happy to include your thoughts in our January issue.